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January 05, 2006

新春討論 河野&石川&井上 ~政界再編の可能性~

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藤澤 その過程の中で民主党などとの政界再編は考えられますか。
石川 本当はあるべきだと思う。僕が不思議に思うのは、国家の1番大切な憲法論で、党内の意見が分裂している党なんて、もはや一つの政党じゃないと思う。それはごまかしだ。
井上 僕は実際に割れると思っている。特に今、憲法が議論になっていることと、もう一つは今の現状が「自民党が大勝。民主党が大敗した」という状況。僕は政党とはものすごく勝った時と、ものすごく負けた時に分裂すると思っている。
民主党が、考え方が違うのに結束していられるのは、「次の政権は俺たちだ」と思えていたから。でもそれが負けて可能性が遠くなった今、「もう一緒にやってられないよ」という状況になると思う。逆に我々自民党も衆参で300議席を越える大所帯になると、中には色んな人たちがいて、しかも9月には総裁選という大きな政治的日程がある。となると、「あいつが総理になるのは気にくわねえ」という話も出て来ると思う。
つまり、数年内に割れる可能性を、お互い抱えている。そしたら再編です。
河野 やはり民主党という政党は、出来上がった人たちが作った党だから、なかなか難しい党。つまり、「こういうことをやりたい」「こんなことをやらないか」と言って集まった党ではないから、なかなか意見の一致が難しいようだ。
例えば前原代表が先日、アメリカで語った演説についても、「よく言った」と手を叩く人がいる一方で、「困ったもんだ」と苦虫を噛み潰したような顔をする人もいる。これらが一つの意見になるとしても恐らく時間がかかるだろう。
それと前原代表の考えはちょっと違う。僕らは「党首と言うのは、党員全体の意見をよく聞いて、まあ極端を言えば最大公約数のところで収めていくもの」と思っていた。ところが彼の場合はそうではなくて、「俺はこうなんだ。だからついて来い。それがリーダーシップだ」と考えている。つまり、最大公約数に持っていくと、つまらない意見になってしまうと考えている。だから少し突出した意見を言って、それで引っ張っていこうとする、そんな手法だから。
石川 民主党も今の前原代表のようなのが走っていくと、「前原代表ではとても考えが違う」と、くっ付いていかない人も出て来る。小泉首相はおそらくそれを見越して、ラブコールを送っているのだろう。
河野 まあ、民主党はこの前の選挙で負けたから苦難の時。政党と言うのは負けたら絶対もめるから。
石川 そう言えば1番つらい時の総裁だったな。
河野 自民党のね。あの頃は毎日毎日、党本部へ行くと「今日は誰が離党届を持って来ます」という時代を経験したから。それを考えると、やはり党というのは一緒に汗をかいて来たんだから、みんなで納得して進むというのが、大事だなと僕は思っている。
井上 もう一つ思うのは、政界再編になるとして、問題なのは選挙制度。小選挙区で政界再編ができるかどうか。
分裂するのは簡単だが、一緒になるとして同じ選挙区に候補者が二人いたら、「どっちが候補者になるんだ」という問題が必ず起こる。そこをどう乗り越えられるかだ。
分裂したはいいが、小さな政党が乱立する状況では、日本の未来にとってあまり良い状況ではないと思う。
私はあくまで衆議院は単純小選挙区、参議院は単純全国区だと思っていますが。
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